Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes that Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by the end of the year is extremely unlikely without some extraordinary events. Despite several crypto executives maintaining bullish year-end predictions, Novogratz cautions that the end of the year is less than three months away and achieving such a surge would require “a heck of a lot of crazy stuff”. Currently, Bitcoin trades around $107,649, meaning it would need to climb about 133% in roughly 10 weeks to hit that target.
In a worst-case scenario, Novogratz expects Bitcoin to hold strong near the $100,000 mark, a psychological milestone it first surpassed in December 2024 after Donald Trump’s reelection. This level or slightly below is considered a key downside threshold. Bitcoin briefly tested this support recently amid market turbulence following Trump’s imposition of 100% tariffs on China, which dropped prices near $102,000.
On the upside, Novogratz emphasizes that momentum won’t truly accelerate unless Bitcoin breaks above $125,000, close to its recent all-time high. He views the most probable price range to remain between $100,000 and $125,000 unless significant catalysts drive it higher. Potential triggers include unexpected political influence on Federal Reserve decisions or the passage of the crypto market structure reform known as the CLARITY Act.
The crypto community also watches the Fed’s interest rate moves closely. With the Fed likely to cut rates again at the upcoming October meeting, some bullish sentiment surrounds Bitcoin’s outlook. Meanwhile, other crypto insiders like Tom Lee and Arthur Hayes continue to advocate for a year-end price between $200,000 and $250,000, holding to their long-term forecasts. Yet skeptics like analyst PlanC suggest that fixating on Q4 price peaks ignores statistical and probabilistic realities.
In summary, while optimism remains, Novogratz advises tempered expectations, signaling that Bitcoin hitting $250K this year would require unprecedented developments.
Read more: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-2025-macro-factors-galaxy-digital-mike-novogratz